Phenom Fever

One of the great things about baseball is the minor league system. Basketball and football don't really have that, developmental leagues aside. It has become a rich part of baseball folklore, and American life in many medium to small cities.

For the baseball fan, the minors produce a unique and tasty dish-- the Phenom. You know, the young player that comes up to the big show, and lights up everyone like he was from another planet, where every player gets inducted to Cooperstown before he plays his first full season.

We've got some great ones this year-- a reason for hope, surely, for many teams. Unfortunately, sometimes it is the same type of hope that an addicted gambler has when they pull the handle of a slot machine. It's not all Cherries in PhenomLand-- sometimes it's Lemons.

Look at Jeff Francouer of the Atlanta Braves. On this date, he's hitting .360/.728/.376.

Sure, the big guy looks great on TV, smashing homers and showing off his cannon arm by throwing out runners. But is there a crack in the armor here?

In 114 at bats, young Jeff has drawn 0 walks. ZERO. As in none. As in Jose Canseco's chances of getting into the Hall of Fame, or being asked to Raffy Palmeiro's Christmas party.

And that idiot radio guy in San Fran was running smack on Caribeaan players for swinging at everything! Francouer must have been hit by a pitch or two, since his OB% is .016 higher than his batting average.

Personally, when I look at players, one of the key stats I use is the subtraction of batting average from on base percentage. This tells me how good an eye the guy has. 100 point higher, and I like the guy a lot-- even if he has a low batting average.

Any hitter can slump, but good on base guys will continue to walk-- Just look at Jason Giambi the last two years. Now he's recovered some of his power stroke, and is very worthwhile to the Yankees.

Will Francouer be a great major leaguer? My guess would be yes, but then, I have The Phenom Fever. Luckily, I have been saved from my own heated misjudgement in my Strat baseball league-- the guy who owns Francouer is just as sick over him as I am, and refuses to trade him.

The same guy owns Jeremy Hermida, a minor leaguer for Florida that has over 20 steals and 16 homers, and has already passed 100 walks this year. Sure, it's at AA levels, but this guy is a comer-- Phenom Fever next year may well have his name on it.

Another Phenom this year is Zach Duke. Nine starts for the Pirates have yielded a 1.87 ERA, and a 6-0 record. He had a 2.92 ERA in 108 innings at AAA this year, so he is definitely a promising player. His 1.21 WHIP is good, too. And in the Steel City, any excuse to get excited about baseball is a good one.

But remember, we are getting all giggly over a fellow who is still pitching worse than Roger Clemens.

Duke, at 22, and Francouer, at 21, make us wonder how good they could be. But history teaches us that guys like this do not increase exponentially as they age. Does Doc Gooden ring a bell? Andruw Jones? Even ARod has never hit for as high an average as he did his rookie year.

Oh, but the excitement they can generate! Having a productive Phenom on your team is like a Gift from the Baseball Gods-- suddenly your team is much better, and you didn't have to trade anyone. You don't have to listen to whining about contracts. You probably don't know his agent's name. And you'll need a magic marker and an iron-on number to wear his jersey.

Baseball's soaring salaries and free agency's tendency to send your player to another team haven't kicked in yet with the Phenom. For a small window of time, it's like Curt Flood didn't exist. You can enjoy your home boy-- whom you can almost visualize pumping gas in your hometown in the off-season-- in the purity of the true nature of baseball. It's Francouer against Duke, and there is no Barry Bonds bitterness or Bud Selig spin to get in your way. No drug test needed here-- it's just a couple of good old boys playing hardball.

Baseball is a superior sport because of this. I didn't see Jeff Francouer in a tuxedo, getting a hat from David Stern. I didn't hear weeks of debate about Duke being the top pick or not, like I did with Alex Smith in the NFL. They both just appeared magically, a bunny pulled from the hat of the minor leagues. I am in awe just as much as any 6 year old watching a slick handed magician at their birthday party.

Phenom Fever is fantastic! Just don't mistake the delirium that results for an accurate prediction of a Hall of Fame career.

Peace-Out
Jim Evans